Law Times

July 27, 2009

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lAw times • July 27/August 3, 2009 at Statistics Canada last week. Crime rates are down — all of them, vio- lent crime, assaults, robberies, car theft, youth crime. You name it — they all went T The big crime scare The he latest crime rates came out Hill By Richard Cleroux down. It's the same across Canada. Down about five per cent in 2008 — 77,000 fewer crimes. That's 28,000 fewer serious thefts, 22,000 fewer break-ins, 20,000 fewer car thefts. The crime rate has been dropping steadily for the last 10 years, says Statistics Canada. It's down to about 1950 rates right now. Even the crime rate for 12- to 17- year olds fell five per cent in 2008, the fourth decline in five years. So much for youth crime. So much for a need for Prime Min- ister Stephen Harper's big "war on crime" to counter a mysterious rising crime rate. For three years now, Harper and his people have been trying to scare us into believing Canadian cities are engulfed in a crime wave. But it's just not true. It's understandable. It gets votes. Justice Minister Rob Nicholson has spun out a litany of crime war prom- ises. "This is a national priority," he says. Actually getting us out of the re- cession might be more of a priority right now. "Canadians want action on crime now and that's what we intend to de- liver." — Nicholson, Oct. 17, 2007. "We have all heard about the nu- merous shootings on the streets in and around Vancouver lately. Similar activity in Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg is gripping those cities, and we all remember the Boxing Day shooting in Toronto in 2005 and . . ." — Nicholson, Feb. 26, 2009. Harper has been able to take advan- tage of the prime-time crime we see on the evening news every night, by prom- ising to "clean up our streets." Harper knows crime — especially violent crime — makes people's blood boil. It's all grist for his mill: street kill- ings in Montreal, candy shop mur- ders in Toronto, store-front shootings on Yonge Street, ethnic road racers in Vancouver, murdered judges in Ot- tawa, and home invasions in ethnic communities. Harper and Nicholson repeatedly promise to "clean up the streets of our cities." Actually, proportionally violent crime is worse in rural areas than in cities, but rural crime doesn't sell as well. So, you won't catch Harper prom- ising a campaign against "crime in the countryside" cities. even after four Mounties got shot to death in a barn. It's all happening in those wicked Richard Cleroux is a freelance reporter and columnist on Parliament Hill. His e-mail address cleroux@rogers.com. is richard COMMENT In the spring of 2008 Harper came up with the Tackling Violent Crime Act — mandatory minimum sentences and less parole — slammed by every bar association and judicial associa- tion in the country. But what do judges and lawyers know about crime anyway? Harper's crime law was popular with voters. They gobbled it up. Judges and lawyers were told from the safety of the Commons: "If you're not with us, you're with the crimi- nals." Nice thing to say, guys. So why does the crime rate keep going down? It's a puzzler. One might have supposed there would be a correlation between the economy and crime — as in "hard times are crime times." It's not the case. There's proof. Six hundred thousand Canadians have lost their jobs since last fall. The unemployment rate has shot up to 8.4 per cent — maybe 12 per cent if we count people who tell friends, "I'm just between jobs," or "I'm self- employed now." But the crime rate has not gone up. Social workers who track crime rates don't have a ready answer. The most likely reason, they figure, is that crime rates are down because the population is aging. Old people don't commit as many crimes. Experts have noticed that cities with a lot of retired people tend to have a lower crime rate — places such as Guelph, which happens to lead the country as the safest place to live right now. It has the lowest crime rate of all. Nicholson is not impressed. He's going right on ahead with his war on crime. "We don't govern on the latest sta- tistics," he told a Canadian Press re- porter. No, it's easier to pander to public fear than base policies on statistical reality. Nice choice, Rob. The statistics show the crime rate was going down long before Harper came to power. It wasn't any higher when Paul Martin or Jean Chrétien were in power. So much for anyone else taking credit. U.S. President Ronald Reagan had an expression for politicians who made up things for political advantage: "There you go again." So, expect 10 more crime laws this fall, including a "crackdown" on auto theft, which by the way, went down 44 per cent last year. As Reagan might say: "There we go again!" LT on the upswing. From my own experience, it at least seems that deal flow is picking up. Not only does there seem to be more E to work on now, it also seems that the pipeline is not as dry as it was earlier in the year. The Associate After a pro- longed period of inactivity, it may be that businesses are starting to conclude that the worst of the economic crisis is over or, at least, that it is not going to get any worse so if a business has survived to this point, it is likely going to make it through the downturn. However, it is relatively clear that, my own experience notwithstanding, the national economy continues to sputter. In early June, Statistics Canada reported that, following gains in April, employment decreased by 42,000 in May, led by further manufacturing losses in Ontario. The national unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4 per cent, the highest rate in 11 years. Since the employment peak of Oc- tober 2008, employment has fallen by 363,000 or 2.1 per cent. These trends in the national econo- my are necessarily felt in the legal com- munity too, though perhaps with some lag time. Further, I still get the odd call or e- mail from friends letting me know that biglaw firms continue to layoff associ- ates (they seem to always be done on the extreme down-low). The downturn could have had (and may yet have) any number of conse- quences for an associate. At worst, one could have been laid off. At best, one could be busier than ever because s/he practises in an area of law that blooms in tough economic times. There are all kinds of scenarios in between: perhaps partnership has been pushed off a few years because you're not busy enough to produce the req- uisite numbers; or maybe you've been busy enough to keep your job and, at the same time, have been able to pursue interests outside of the office — that is, perhaps you have the perfect work/life balance going, which, if that is how you feel, may say much about how you will feel about your position as an associate once the balance again becomes skewed (or, rather, (ab)normalizes). Given my own conflicting experi- ences of an increase in deal flow, the poor economic reports that StatsCan continues to deliver and the appar- ent continuing layoffs of friends and By Justin Mooney Tough economic lessons learned very once in a while I will hear some news that leads me to be- lieve that the economy may be colleagues, how am I (how is any non- economist) supposed to properly deter- mine where in this economic process we are? More to the point, as an associ- ate, how secure in your job do you currently feel? If your firm has made a round of layoffs, are you confi- dent that is the end of it? Do you con- tinue to sit at your desk and feel vulnerable as you try to at least appear busy? Or have the layoffs meant that you're now busier because there are now less people to lay claim to the work that is available (or maybe work beginning to pick up generally)? As a tangible example for many as- sociates, are you comfortable enough to take advantage of low interest rates (and an arguably repressed condo/hous- ing market) to buy a condo or house? For most associates, this is the first time in our professional career that we have been through a downturn. It is a needed awakening to the fact that good economic times don't last — like fashion trends, economic trends are cyclical. The key for us is to ensure that we learn from our own experience in the current downturn, whatever that expe- rience may be for each of us. There will be another downturn within the span of our careers. So, one must question: what will I do during the next economic bubble to ensure that when the subsequent down- turn happens my own exposure will be minimized? More to the point, how will I build my practice to ensure that I am seen as valu- able (for the most part, this likely means how will I build a book of business)? Because next time this happens your commitments may be significantly more than they are now: children (or, by then, young adult children that are in private school or university); a large mortgage; a car that costs more than you ever thought you'd spend on a house. Our current experience has afforded us an opportunity to take stock of what is most important in our own respec- tive lives and what we actually need to save and prepare for. So, while in my view the current downturn continues, it is not too early to start thinking about what you will do to ensure that you do not fall victim to the next one. LT Justin Mooney, who was called to the bar in 2002, is an associate who practises cor- porate/commercial law at Davis LLP. He can be reached at jmooney@davis.ca. WHICH DIRECTION IS BEST FOR YOU? RainMaker Group 110 Yonge Street, Suite 1101 Toronto, Ontario M5C 1T4 Untitled-7 1 Tel: 416-863-9543 Fax: 416-863-9757 www.rainmakergroup.ca www.lawtimesnews.com 5/29/08 1:05:49 PM PAGE 7

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